nlightened.me

“The best way to predict the future is to create it”

– Abraham Lincoln and/or Peter Drucker

Irrespective of who said these profound words, they have a powerful and liberating effect on humans. They give us a sense of control over our lives. What new can life anyway throw at us? It seems, a lot.

Let’s take stock of our collective information and ignorance about the world. A lot seems to be going on:

1. We are living through one of the biggest public health crisis of the past century. What makes this worse is that very little is known about the virus that has wrecked this havoc. New data emerges every week – recent reports indicate that even children are at grave risk.
2. The economic contraction this quarter will rival the Great Depression. And while everyone is hoping for a recovery, there seems to be no consensus on the nature of the recovery. There are at least four alphabets from L to W as likely candidates to describe the recovery.
3. In a bid to stimulate the comatose economy, Governments are spending amounts they have never spent before. The US economy is projected to report a record USD 3.8 trillion budget deficit for fiscal 2020. Who or what will fund this deficit?
4. The world continues to be connected in more ways than ever where no country is truly isolated. We live in a world where information spreads at the speed of light and infections at the speed of a flight.

Truly tough times. No one leading us has lived through one such event, let alone multiple concurrent episodes that evolve by the second. So what is the path forward? Should we change our approaches of heroism, escapism or futurism into Stoicism? It might be an approach that might just work. Epictetus said “The greater the difficulty, the more glory in surmounting it. Skilful pilots gain their reputation from storms and tempests.”

The human ability to make the most out of uncertainty is what creates potential value. This is how we advanced as a civilisation. How do we make the most of where we are especially as we make decisions about our lives and ecosystems. Here is one perspective:

1. There is information, there are inferences and then there are opinions. In decision making try to use much of data & fact based information and inferences instead of opinions. When it pertains to the future, no one knows so opinions alone don’t count for much.
2. Avoid committing to long term decisions that might have irreversible implications. The new long term is at best a week or fortnight depending on what part of the economy or world one is in. So don’t over commit and attempt to use the latest information in each key decision.
3. Define a clear operating principle of what you are maximising for: Health & Well being, revenues, profits, cash management or any other KPI that is a non-negotiable. This brings clarity and drives the right actions.
4. As in all decisions, but much more now given lives at stake, articulate what you gain versus what you risk as a result of the decision. The cost-benefit equation could change by the week.

The only certainty at the moment is deep prolonged uncertainty. So accept it and take it by the day. While we cannot change the external events, we can certainly choose our approach towards it. Victor Frankl expressed this sentiment beautifully in his seminal book Man’s Search for Meaning when he said “When we are no longer able to change a situation, we are challenged to change ourselves.” So take one step at a time on the Stairway to Uncertainty.